The Northern Rock debacle of last week reminded me of my blog post in March, where I pondered the possibility of a large bank running into debt problems leading to a nationwide mortgage crisis and a house price recession. Sound familiar? Now I admit that I wasn't spot on, and I made no mention of the complicated US subprime mortgage issue. However, the bank didn't run into a major incident, and there has been no lasting effect on house prices or mortgage rates.
Of course the main reason for this was a massive injection of cash to support the business whilst loans between international banks are going through a bit of a stroppy phase. If the market had been left to its own devices, as I'm sure some people would argue to be the best solution, things could have been a lot worse, as their customers seemed pretty desperate to take their money elsewhere.
Elsewhere, the dollar continues to plunge against every other world currency, interest rates are becoming an increasingly weak economic control, oil producing countries are switching to trade in Euros. Every indicator seems to be pointing towards... "something". Whether that something resembles the economic equivalent of a Die Hard 4 or pathetically "collapsing like a flan in a cupboard" depends on the attitude and arrogance of financial leaders. Does that instill you with confidence?




